SKU: 43160663971

勝算:不再靠運氣!從機率、賽局到AI,解鎖預測與決策的科學(二版)

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勝算:不再靠運氣!從機率、賽局到AI,解鎖預測與決策的科學(二版): : Adam Kucharski London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine20122016 DiscoveryBBC1110

作者: 亞當・庫查司基  |  譯者: 甘錫安


       
從「賽局理論」約翰・馮紐曼到《他是賭神,更是股神》愛德華.索普,
博奕的魔力吸引了古往今來各領域的頂尖腦袋, 
他們的研究成果,對於理解運氣和聰明決策有何啟發?
又點出我們解讀各種現象時,有哪一些常見的盲點?
———《數學大觀念》作者亞瑟‧班傑明口碑力挺!———
 
  長久以來,各領域的頂尖頭腦都深受博奕吸引,他們不斷挑戰預測的極限,探究秩序與混沌的分界,以揭曉「機會」背後的學問。從賽局理論、混沌理論、統計學、心理學、物理學、經濟學乃至人工智慧,都因「賭」而拓展了探索的疆界。
 
  我們常用「運氣」和「技巧」截然劃分事情的成因,其實兩者的界線並非涇渭分明。了解賭的科學,有助於洞察普遍的判斷盲點,更睿智地權衡風險與報酬,從而做出好的決策。
 
  ●懂博奕,你會更洞察盲點
  ○賭場改用多達六副牌擾亂算牌客,為何效果適得其反?
  ○研究放射性衰變與大腦神經元活動的「卜瓦松過程」與足球比賽何干?
  ○為何有些投注公司反其道而行,樂於吸引精明賭客來投注?
  ○投注業者改變賠率不是為了符合結果的真實機率,那是為啥?
  
  ●懂博奕,你會更了解投資
  ○為何股票市場「大變化後面往往還會出現大變化」,反之亦然?
  ○交易機器人崛起後,金融市場的哪些現象你尤其該審慎解讀?
  ○購買不同產業多家公司的股票,投資組合多樣性為何仍然不夠?
  ○投資領域的「基本分析法」,要注意什麼盲點?
  ○購買擔保債券憑證時,要避免什麼錯誤假設?
 
  ●懂博奕,你會更善於決策
  ○機會賽局中常見的「馬可夫鏈」,如何有助於尋找隱含資訊?
  ○撲克牌是許多生活實際狀況的完美縮影,因為它試圖處理缺漏的資訊。
  ○賽局未達到最佳結果時,參與者的決定不會趨向平衡,而會大幅震盪。
  ○參與者易失誤或得在賽局中學習時,賽局理論不是找出最佳策略的好方法……
 
  ●懂博奕,你會更過好人生
  ○為什麼選擇最簡單的解釋,往往反而明智? 
  ○為何最快的解決方法,有時像在走回頭路?
  ○人性偏誤會導致我們誤判賽事的哪些方面?
  ○優秀的機器人程式不能只有蠻力,還要懂心理學才行。(更詳盡的介紹請參閱目錄的各章引文)



作者

亞當‧庫查司基(Adam Kucharski)
 
  亞當・庫查司基為劍橋大學數學博士,現為倫敦衛生與熱帶醫學院(London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)傳染病流行病學教授,從事社會行為與免疫學等領域的大規模研究,曾因研究伊波拉病毒和茲卡病毒等全球性傳染病,而親赴太平洋群島多座村落與拉丁美洲多間醫院,進行田野調查;此外他也開發開放原始碼軟體,致力於利用數據和分析來提升因應流行病的能力。庫查司基長年為多家媒體撰寫科普文章,作品散見於《連線》、《金融時報》、《新科學人》、《科學美國人》、《泰晤士報》,以及《觀察家報》等刊物,並曾分別於2012年與2016年榮獲「惠康科普著作獎」與「羅莎琳‧富蘭克林獎」,其最新著作《傳染力法則》(行路出版)則獲《泰晤士報》、《衛報》與《金融時報》評選為年度科學圖書。
 
譯者
 
甘錫安
 
  由科學界踏入「譯界」,現為專職譯者。曾擔任Discovery頻道與資訊雜誌編譯,現仍為《科學人》與《BBC知識》等雜誌翻譯。書籍譯作包括《品嘗的科學》(合譯)、《決斷的演算:預測、分析與好決定的11堂邏輯課》、《暗池:人工智慧如何顛覆股市生態》、《成分迷思:解讀健康新聞的10堂通識課》、《因果革命:人工智慧的大未來》等書。住在有山有海有美食的台灣頭基隆,熱愛吸收各類知識,正努力朝「全方位譯人」的目標邁進。
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